RISK ANALYSIS OF WIND POWER PLANT PROJECT FINANCIAL PARAMETERS EVALUATION

Abstract

In this paper, the basic financial risks in the development of the wind farm project were discussed. The construction project of a wind power plant is a complex project exposed to the influence of various factors, the occurrence of which cannot be predicted in advance, and which can significantly affect the realization of the planned economic parameters, i.e. the profitability of the wind power plant. Determining the parameters that significantly affect the course of the project and assessing their uncertainty are the assumptions with which the analytical part of the work begins. Non-realization of planned input parameters and resulting economic indicators was simulated using the Monte-Carlo method. The basic results of the simulation are given by the probability distributions of criterion variables and the probability of realization of unfavorable scenarios. Based on these probabilities, it is possible to assess the level of risk of the project as a whole.

Publication
10. savjetovanje HRO CIGRÉ